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In a world overwhelmed with data, but starved for insight, Weekly Stock Call seeks to provide a little clarity by sharing our opinions and preliminary research on selected publicly traded companies whose shares are felt to be trading at reasonable prices relative to their intrinsic value and are expected to benefit from future macroeconomic or demographic trends. Publication may at times be sporadic as we’d rather avoid publishing any review at all in a given week than to drop the standards for inclusion.
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This Week's Call:
Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT)
July 24, 2011
Current Price – US$27.53
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), arguably the world’s most prominent software company, earns annual revenues of US$69.9B on sales and licensing of operating systems, applications, development tools and video games. The company derives revenues across its five major business divisions; Microsoft Business (32%), Windows (27%), Server and Tools (24%), Entertainment (13%) and Online Services (4%).
Despite the company’s ubiquitous market presence, its traditionally dominant position in PC systems software (Windows) and business productivity software (Office) is being challenged by industry evolution towards hosted applications (“Cloud Computing”), evolving hardware platforms (tablets and smart phones) and the widespread availability of open source software. Investors have responded to the uncertainly created with these developments by discounting the company’s stock considerably (P/E of 10.8 vs. historical and industry ratios of 17.3 and 17.9 respectively).
While these evolutions may challenge Microsoft, competition with Apple, Google, Oracle, Amazon and host of others is sure to drive innovation, convergence and consolidation in the foreseeable future. The company enters into this period of renewed competition with distinct competitive advantages including; a large entrenched customer base and established partner/channel networks, superior profit margins (operating 39%) and free cash flow (FCF/Sales 35%), emerging opportunities for server products in “cloud computing”, and recent strategic acquisitions and alliances with companies such as Skype, Nokia, Facebook and Hulu.
It might take some time for Microsoft’s share price to correct, but value should become evident as competition intensifies in more currently sexy tech products (tablets, smart phones, …) and margins in those products are squeezed.
Valuation
Based on a blend of valuation methods (discounted cash flows, dividend discount method and historical and industry price ratios) I arrive at a current valuation for Microsoft Corporation of US$33.11
Expected return should this price be realized in the markets within the next 12 months would be:
Price yield 20.3%
Dividend yield 2.3%
Total return 22.6%
Risks
Listed below are some of the key risks faced by the company. This list is by no means comprehensive. For a more complete discussion of risk, refer to the company’s annual report and 10K filing.
Global Economic Conditions – sales to OEM partners and Enterprise licensing revenues are strongly linked to general levels of economic activity and prolonged economic slowdown could adversely impact earnings.
Slow or Ineffective Response to Market Evolution - being left behind in developing applications for and migrating to new hardware and delivery modes could result in loss of market share and diminished revenues.
New Market Penetration – the risk of being unable to effectively penetrate some emerging markets or of having market share eroded by lower cost imitations could hamper revenue growth and erode market share.
The Numbers
Share Price ($US) 27.53
Market Cap ($US B) 231.5
No. Shares (M) 8,668
ROE 44.0%
ROA 23.6%
P/E Ratio 10.8
Price/Sales Ratio 4.4
Price/Book Ratio 3.4
Current Ratio 2.8
Interest Coverage 113.1Total Debt/Equity 22.0%
Analyst – David Scollon
Disclosure - At publication of this analysis I hold no position in this security, but may take a long position in the future. I do not take short positions in any of the stocks reviewed on this site, nor do I receive any compensation from the companies studied for publication of my opinions.
Current Price – US$27.53
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), arguably the world’s most prominent software company, earns annual revenues of US$69.9B on sales and licensing of operating systems, applications, development tools and video games. The company derives revenues across its five major business divisions; Microsoft Business (32%), Windows (27%), Server and Tools (24%), Entertainment (13%) and Online Services (4%).
Despite the company’s ubiquitous market presence, its traditionally dominant position in PC systems software (Windows) and business productivity software (Office) is being challenged by industry evolution towards hosted applications (“Cloud Computing”), evolving hardware platforms (tablets and smart phones) and the widespread availability of open source software. Investors have responded to the uncertainly created with these developments by discounting the company’s stock considerably (P/E of 10.8 vs. historical and industry ratios of 17.3 and 17.9 respectively).
While these evolutions may challenge Microsoft, competition with Apple, Google, Oracle, Amazon and host of others is sure to drive innovation, convergence and consolidation in the foreseeable future. The company enters into this period of renewed competition with distinct competitive advantages including; a large entrenched customer base and established partner/channel networks, superior profit margins (operating 39%) and free cash flow (FCF/Sales 35%), emerging opportunities for server products in “cloud computing”, and recent strategic acquisitions and alliances with companies such as Skype, Nokia, Facebook and Hulu.
It might take some time for Microsoft’s share price to correct, but value should become evident as competition intensifies in more currently sexy tech products (tablets, smart phones, …) and margins in those products are squeezed.
Valuation
Based on a blend of valuation methods (discounted cash flows, dividend discount method and historical and industry price ratios) I arrive at a current valuation for Microsoft Corporation of US$33.11
Expected return should this price be realized in the markets within the next 12 months would be:
Price yield 20.3%
Dividend yield 2.3%
Total return 22.6%
Risks
Listed below are some of the key risks faced by the company. This list is by no means comprehensive. For a more complete discussion of risk, refer to the company’s annual report and 10K filing.
Global Economic Conditions – sales to OEM partners and Enterprise licensing revenues are strongly linked to general levels of economic activity and prolonged economic slowdown could adversely impact earnings.
Slow or Ineffective Response to Market Evolution - being left behind in developing applications for and migrating to new hardware and delivery modes could result in loss of market share and diminished revenues.
New Market Penetration – the risk of being unable to effectively penetrate some emerging markets or of having market share eroded by lower cost imitations could hamper revenue growth and erode market share.
The Numbers
Share Price ($US) 27.53
Market Cap ($US B) 231.5
No. Shares (M) 8,668
ROE 44.0%
ROA 23.6%
P/E Ratio 10.8
Price/Sales Ratio 4.4
Price/Book Ratio 3.4
Current Ratio 2.8
Interest Coverage 113.1Total Debt/Equity 22.0%
Analyst – David Scollon
Disclosure - At publication of this analysis I hold no position in this security, but may take a long position in the future. I do not take short positions in any of the stocks reviewed on this site, nor do I receive any compensation from the companies studied for publication of my opinions.
Copyright © 2010 Scollon Asset Analytics Ltd.
All rights reserved. Unauthorized distribution or reproduction is strictly forbidden.
Scollon Asset Analytics Ltd. obtains information from various sources felt to be reliable but does not warrant its accuracy and disclaims for itself all liability arising from its use. No information provided shall constitute tax, legal, or investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities.
All rights reserved. Unauthorized distribution or reproduction is strictly forbidden.
Scollon Asset Analytics Ltd. obtains information from various sources felt to be reliable but does not warrant its accuracy and disclaims for itself all liability arising from its use. No information provided shall constitute tax, legal, or investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities.
